I have a confession to make. I am not much of a gambler. In
fact, that’s an understatement. I have
never sat at a card table in a casino. The last time I played poker for
stakes (nickel, dime, quarter) was in a cozy game with
friends three decades ago. I have somehow resisted the online gambling revolution
and the constant assault on the senses through advertising by DraftKings, William Hill, MGM and other assorted online gambling
platforms that make it so easy for you to gamble. Just bet a dollar and you can
win $100; it’s just that easy. Right.
I do have one gambling weakness, however. I have been
indulging in rotisserie baseball and fantasy football for at least 30 years.
That satisfies my gambling itch. Of course, since fantasy sports are games of
skill, not chance, perhaps that participation doesn't qualify as gambling in
certain circles.
Which brings us to the Masters Tune-a-ment, which starts
tomorrow. I must say that I have never
been as disinterested in arguably golf’s crown jewel (at least on this side of the
pond) as I am this year. While I am no fan of no fan of Tiger Woods, his
absence makes this year's tournament much less interesting both from a golfing
and historical perspective.
Speaking of history, Lee Elder, who in
1975 became the first Black man to play in the Masters, will be an honorary
starter tomorrow morning alongside the sport’s elder statesmen 85-year-old Gary
Player and 80-year-old Jack Nicklaus. That’s swell, but let’s remember how many
Black golfers played, i.e., were invited, to play in the Masters between Elder in
21975 and Woods’ first appearance in 1995 at age 19. The answer?
Precisely two, Calvin Peete and Jim Dent. As Clifford Roberts, one of Augusta
National’s co-founders, said, “As long as I’m alive, all the golfers will be
white and all the caddies will be Black.”
And the caddies were black, until the pros demanded they be allowed to
bring their own caddies to the tournament in 1983. (But the overalls, still
required to be worn by each player’s caddy, remain white. Oh, the irony.)
I have reviewed the so-called Masters’ story lines
on sports websites this week, and pardon me if they inspire a huge “ho-hum”. Some
of the so-called big story lines:
1.
Can Dustin Justin repeat as champion?
This is mildly interesting. Only three golfers have won back-to-back
Masters since the tournament began in 1934; you may have heard of them Jack
Nicklaus (1965-66), Nick Faldo (1989-90) and Tiger Woods (2001-02).
Should Johnson win this week, he will
perhaps solidify his Hall of Fame credentials: he will move into a tie for 23rd
in most PGA wins with legend Johnny Miller and two others (no current active
PGA tour golfer other than Phil Mickelson has more than 18 (Rory)); he will
also have accumulated 3 majors victories; of active golfers, only Mickelson,
McIlroy and Koepka, all sure-fire HOFers in waiting, have more. But if he does win,
it will be hard to top the Champions Dinner menu chosen by “Mr. Johnson” for
Tuesday night’s dinner: Pigs in a Blanket –
Yum! Lobster & Corn Fritters – a tip
of the hat to his South Carolina roots; EntrĂ©e: prime filet mignon or miso-marinated sea bass – Sign Me
Up!

Certainly a DJ repeat would be
historical, but it won’t get me jumping
off the sofa if he wins. (Gonzaga still has time to do something….!)
2.
Jordan Spieth is back: yes, he
has been on a statistical roll lately, especially with his iron play. And his victory last week in the Texas Open
certainly provides momentum going into Augusta.
But the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course is no Augusta National, and only
four golfers, two since 1960, have won the <asters the week after triumphing
in a Tour victory, and Mickelson was the last in 2006. Admittedly, a fourth major would be extremely
cool. I could root for him; but I will
root for one other golfer more…
3.
Rory McIlroy. Yes, my Irish is
showing. And a victory at the Masters in
2021 would close his career Slam as well as lift him to 5 career majors; only
12 golfers have more, all of them legends. But to paraphrase the great philosopher
Yogi Berra, "Golf is ninety percent mental. The other
half is physical." Between the ghosts of his historic collapse at
Augusta in 2011 and his puzzling chase
of Bryson DeChambeau to be the longest driver on the tour (Rory is only one
yard behind BdC in average driving distance – go figure). I don’t give Rory
much of a chance. If he can escape his traditional
slow start, i.e., crashing and burning in Round One, perhaps he has a chance to
wear the green jacket on Sunday. I hope
so.
Other story lines that just don’t interest
me: Brooks Koepka (hope he’s healthy,
but I doubt it); Jon Rahm (baby delivered, now on to Augusta); do old golfers like
Sergio, Lee Westwood and Paul Casey have a chance (No); and so on.
One story for which I actually have an
affirmative repulsion: can Bryson “Big Science” DeChambeau wreck Augusta
National with his booming drives and wedges into the part-fives. Now let’s
get something straight, long drivers have always had a distinct advantage at
Augusta National (see Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods, whose 18
under par 270, leading the field by 12 strokes, in 1997 required immediate “Tiger
Proofing” of the azaleas). And Johnson
has traditionally been one of the longest hitters on tour. But DeChambeau’s obsession
with so-called “science” and with driving distance is, frankly,
nauseating. So I will be actively
rooting against Big Science this weekend (which mean he will do extremely well.)
So, back to the gambling. Here are the moneyline odds for some of the top
players (according to Fanduel):
- Dustin Johnson: +950
- Jordan Spieth: +1150
- Bryson DeChambeau: +1150
- Justin Thomas: +1250
- Jon Rahm: +1250
- Rory McIlroy: +1900
- Patrick Cantlay: +2050
- Xander Schauffele: +2600
- Brooks Koepka: +2800
- Collin Morikawa: +3150
- Viktor Hovland: +3500
- Paul Casey: +3500
- Tony Finau: +3500
- Patrick Reed: +3500
- Webb Simpson: +3500
- Cameron Smith: +3500
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: +4000
- Daniel Berger: +4000
- Sungjae Im: +4150
- Tyrrell Hatton: +5000
- Hideki Matsuyama: +5000
- Lee Westwood: +5000
- Jason Day: +5500
- Scottie Scheffler: +5500
- Joaquin Niemann: +5500
- Tommy Fleetwood: +6000
- Sergio Garcia: +6000
Notables not in the above group: Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott,
Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris, Bubba Watson, Matthew
Wolff. Hmm..
It would seem logical that the winner of the 2021 Masters would
have to originate from the group of golfers with a money line of +3500 or less.
I’ll take the field below +3500 and hope Rory or Jordan Spieth prove me wrong.
Enjoy the piped-in birdies chirping on CBS.
© 2012-21 R.E. Kelly
AMDG