I do have one gambling weakness, however. I have been indulging in rotisserie baseball and fantasy football for at least 30 years. That satisfies my gambling itch. Of course, since fantasy sports are games of skill, not chance, perhaps that participation doesn't qualify as gambling in certain circles.
Which brings us to the Masters Tune-a-ment, which starts tomorrow. I must say that I have never been as disinterested in arguably golf’s crown jewel (at least on this side of the pond) as I am this year. While I am no fan of no fan of Tiger Woods, his absence makes this year's tournament much less interesting both from a golfing and historical perspective.
Speaking of history, Lee Elder, who in 1975 became the first Black man to play in the Masters, will be an honorary starter tomorrow morning alongside the sport’s elder statesmen 85-year-old Gary Player and 80-year-old Jack Nicklaus. That’s swell, but let’s remember how many Black golfers played, i.e., were invited, to play in the Masters between Elder in 21975 and Woods’ first appearance in 1995 at age 19. The answer? Precisely two, Calvin Peete and Jim Dent. As Clifford Roberts, one of Augusta National’s co-founders, said, “As long as I’m alive, all the golfers will be white and all the caddies will be Black.” And the caddies were black, until the pros demanded they be allowed to bring their own caddies to the tournament in 1983. (But the overalls, still required to be worn by each player’s caddy, remain white. Oh, the irony.)
I have reviewed the so-called Masters’ story lines on sports websites this week, and pardon me if they inspire a huge “ho-hum”. Some of the so-called big story lines:
1. Can Dustin Justin repeat as champion?
This is mildly interesting. Only three golfers have won back-to-back Masters since the tournament began in 1934; you may have heard of them Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), Nick Faldo (1989-90) and Tiger Woods (2001-02).
Should Johnson win this week, he will perhaps solidify his Hall of Fame credentials: he will move into a tie for 23rd in most PGA wins with legend Johnny Miller and two others (no current active PGA tour golfer other than Phil Mickelson has more than 18 (Rory)); he will also have accumulated 3 majors victories; of active golfers, only Mickelson, McIlroy and Koepka, all sure-fire HOFers in waiting, have more. But if he does win, it will be hard to top the Champions Dinner menu chosen by “Mr. Johnson” for Tuesday night’s dinner: Pigs in a Blanket – Yum! Lobster & Corn Fritters – a tip of the hat to his South Carolina roots; Entrée: prime filet mignon or miso-marinated sea bass – Sign Me Up!
Certainly a DJ repeat would be historical, but it won’t get me jumping off the sofa if he wins. (Gonzaga still has time to do something….!)
2. Jordan Spieth is back: yes, he has been on a statistical roll lately, especially with his iron play. And his victory last week in the Texas Open certainly provides momentum going into Augusta. But the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course is no Augusta National, and only four golfers, two since 1960, have won the <asters the week after triumphing in a Tour victory, and Mickelson was the last in 2006. Admittedly, a fourth major would be extremely cool. I could root for him; but I will root for one other golfer more…
3. Rory McIlroy. Yes, my Irish is showing. And a victory at the Masters in 2021 would close his career Slam as well as lift him to 5 career majors; only 12 golfers have more, all of them legends. But to paraphrase the great philosopher Yogi Berra, "Golf is ninety percent mental. The other half is physical." Between the ghosts of his historic collapse at Augusta in 2011 and his puzzling chase of Bryson DeChambeau to be the longest driver on the tour (Rory is only one yard behind BdC in average driving distance – go figure). I don’t give Rory much of a chance. If he can escape his traditional slow start, i.e., crashing and burning in Round One, perhaps he has a chance to wear the green jacket on Sunday. I hope so.
Other story lines that just don’t interest me: Brooks Koepka (hope he’s healthy, but I doubt it); Jon Rahm (baby delivered, now on to Augusta); do old golfers like Sergio, Lee Westwood and Paul Casey have a chance (No); and so on.
One story for which I actually have an affirmative repulsion: can Bryson “Big Science” DeChambeau wreck Augusta National with his booming drives and wedges into the part-fives. Now let’s get something straight, long drivers have always had a distinct advantage at Augusta National (see Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods, whose 18 under par 270, leading the field by 12 strokes, in 1997 required immediate “Tiger Proofing” of the azaleas). And Johnson has traditionally been one of the longest hitters on tour. But DeChambeau’s obsession with so-called “science” and with driving distance is, frankly, nauseating. So I will be actively rooting against Big Science this weekend (which mean he will do extremely well.)
So, back to the gambling. Here are the moneyline odds for some of the top players (according to Fanduel):
- Dustin Johnson: +950
- Jordan Spieth: +1150
- Bryson DeChambeau: +1150
- Justin Thomas: +1250
- Jon Rahm: +1250
- Rory McIlroy: +1900
- Patrick Cantlay: +2050
- Xander Schauffele: +2600
- Brooks Koepka: +2800
- Collin Morikawa: +3150
- Viktor Hovland: +3500
- Paul Casey: +3500
- Tony Finau: +3500
- Patrick Reed: +3500
- Webb Simpson: +3500
- Cameron Smith: +3500
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: +4000
- Daniel Berger: +4000
- Sungjae Im: +4150
- Tyrrell Hatton: +5000
- Hideki Matsuyama: +5000
- Lee Westwood: +5000
- Jason Day: +5500
- Scottie Scheffler: +5500
- Joaquin Niemann: +5500
- Tommy Fleetwood: +6000
- Sergio Garcia: +6000
Notables not in the above group: Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris, Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff. Hmm..
It would seem logical that the winner of the 2021 Masters would have to originate from the group of golfers with a money line of +3500 or less. I’ll take the field below +3500 and hope Rory or Jordan Spieth prove me wrong.
Enjoy the piped-in birdies chirping on CBS.
© 2012-21 R.E. Kelly
AMDG
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